1. Introduction.
The current food crisis is probably the worst in a decade. With the consequences of climate change coinciding with trade restrictions and conflict, years of progress in the battle against hunger and poverty are being rapidly reversed. Many countries are responding with policies that amount to food protectionism, which on a global level will only lead to further food insecurity as richer countries outcompete poorer ones in the race for scarce resources. There is a need for urgent structural changes to global food systems, rooted in both sustainable food and agricultural practices and adequate planning.
The war in Ukraine and an increase in extreme weather events are stretching already fragile food supply chains following shutdowns during the COVID-19 pandemic. As the Ukrainian war continues to suppress food production, droughts in Europe and Africa since 2022, as well as floods in countries such as Pakistan, have contributed to high food prices and shortages worldwide. Combined with a rise in fertilizer and labour costs, these have created inflationary pressures.
The current food price volatility exposes the fragility of our global food system: rising food insecurity, social unrest, displacement, and migration are all possible effects. In fact, the increasing food crisis might soon lead to more social unrest, wars, and conflict as we fight for survival.
The effects of climate change on agriculture have resulted in lower crop yields and decreasing nutritional quality due to drought, heatwaves and flooding as well as increases in pests and plant diseases. Climate change impacts are making it harder for agricultural activities to meet human needs.
Armed conflicts have directly caused food insecurity and starvation by disruption and destruction of food systems, reducing farming populations, destroying infrastructure, reducing resilience, and increasing vulnerabilities, disruptions in access to the market, increasing food price or making goods and services unavailable.
In South Sudan, up to 95 percent of the country’s population depends on farming, fishing or herding to meet their food and income needs. Yet, South Sudan faces one of the world’s worst humanitarian and food security situations. South Sudan has 7.7 million people facing acute malnutrition or starvation as it enters its fifth year of severe food insecurity, according to new research measuring the intensity of food insecurity across populations, produced by Cafod and anti-poverty group Development Initiatives. Investing in agriculture sector development is crucial to long-term peace and development in South Sudan.
2. Important facts
3. South Sudan Food Security Situation from 2016-2023
For the last 7 years the food security situation in South Sudan has been descried as “dire”, with over half of the population needing food assistance – normally from WFP and other food distributing organizations in the country.
Let us look at food security using the FAO definition: “Food security exists when all people, at all times, have physical and economic access to sufficient, safe and nutritious food that meets their dietary needs and food preferences for an active and. healthy life”.
Let’s look at:
a) Physical access (Availability): In 2022, Sudan needed 1,477,200 tons to meet its basic annual cereal requirements. It was able to produce 936,200 tons of cereal, leaving an overall cereal deficit estimated at 541,000 tons. This translates to over 600 million dollars of imports usually from neighboring countries through the aid system or government subsidies.
b) Economic access to food: Food Inflation in South Sudan averaged 65.93 percent from 2008 until 2023, reaching an all-time high of 513.20 percent in December of 2016 and a record low of -32.60 percent in February of 2021. Consumer Price Index in South Sudan increased to 16473 index points in February 2023. The maximum level was 18863 index points and minimum was 53.49 index points. High food prices and limited income for communities, coupled with high depreciation of the local currency, all inhibit economic access to food.
c) Nutrition aspects: Between July 2022 and June 2023, an estimated 1.4 million children under five are expected to suffer from acute malnutrition based on analysis and estimations from the results of the SMART nutrition surveys, Food Security and Nutrition Monitoring System (FSNMS) and program admission trends.
Why does South Sudan continue to remain in a Food Insecurity Crisis despite its very high agricultural potential?
4. Characteristics of the agricultural economy of South Sudan
The decades of conflict have largely eroded the agricultural potential of South Soudan and destroyed its agriculture-based livelihoods. Despite its rich agro-ecosystems, the country is undergoing a serious humanitarian crisis, with extreme levels of poverty, and has been relying heavily on international aid. Food insecurity in South Sudan is mostly driven by the economic and markets impact of conflict, as well as population displacement, low crop yields, climatic shocks, and difficulties for humanitarian access.[1],[2] Farmers have fled their villages for towns. Among those who have stayed behind, many have been unable to access enough land to go beyond subsistence farming and are afraid to travel to town for inputs and sales. Many farmers have lost animals to disease and theft, and fear keeping livestock in an insecure environment. Farming in less suitable areas has also exposed them to the increasing climate risks. In addition, markets for agricultural products have been profoundly disrupted and value chains have disintegrated amid the drastic decline in production, insecurity on the roads, loss of assets, and a breakdown in local market demand.
Insufficient local food production has led the country to become a significant net food importer. The current value of crop production, which represents the “realized agriculture potential” in South Sudan, is only about US$600 million. Crops, together with livestock and fishery products, would make up about US$800 million worth of total agricultural value, which remains relatively low compared with that of neighbors, Uganda with nearly US$10 billion in 2021 and Kenya roughly US$22 billion. South Sudan is now a net cereal importer with an estimated gap of over 500,000 mt in 2022. In the current disrupted markets, local products compete with imports even of basic grains and vegetables, which come from commercial imports, particularly from Uganda and Sudan.
South Sudan depends on massive humanitarian food aid to meet its food gap (over 500,000 mt of mixed commodities in 2022). The country received US$1.6 billion ODA in 2018 and US$2.11 billion in 2021, with the highest being US$2.18 in 2017. Between 2016 and 2023, South Sudan received ODA of US$13.16 billion.
Most of the support was received in the form of food aid and other humanitarian assistance (71%). While the dependency on humanitarian aid was necessary for a young country emerging from conflict, a shift from humanitarian to development-oriented agriculture growth path should become critical for South Sudan’s food security.
Chronic underinvestment in the provision of public services and rural infrastructure has further contributed to low productivity levels of South Sudan agriculture. According to the data from MAFS, agriculture received only about 0.3% of the national budget in South Sudan,[3] which falls well short of the Malabo commitments. For example, in 2018, its cereal yield (kg/ha) was about 18% of the average in South Africa, and about a third (31%-41%) of that of Kenya, Uganda, or Ethiopia. Limited use of farming inputs and modern machinery/equipment are the most significant limiting factors for agricultural activities along intensive and extensive margins. The country can only meet about 17% of its seed needs domestically; the rest are imported from Uganda, Sudan, Kenya, Italy, and the Netherlands.[4] Mechanization is limited to land preparation and sowing and essentially occurs in demarcated large-scale (about 200 ha) commercial farms in Upper Nile, as well as in some un-demarcated traditional farms.[5] Agriculture in South Sudan largely remains at subsistence level with average field sizes of two feddans/acres per household, crop yields being very low: hardly one ton per feddan/acre due to use of poor-quality seeds, tools, and agronomic practices.
5. Strategic solutions to South Sudan’s Food Insecurity situation
Despite the enormous challenges, South Sudan’s agricultural potential represents a development opportunity not only to improve food security, but also livelihoods, jobs and peace in the country. Agriculture, including crops, livestock and fishery, is still the major source of livelihoods for most South Sudanese people. Yet the productivity sector is among the lowest in the world, with rudimentary food value chains. Developing agrifood systems can have a tremendous job-multiplier effect beyond primary production, yielding to new and adequate job opportunities in the more downstream segments of the food value chains (FAO/WB 2022).
Rich pedoclimatic endowments and agro-ecosystems in South Sudan makes it suitable for the development of diverse livelihood opportunities.[6] Based on the precipitation, water availability and livelihood patterns, there are seven main livelihood zones in the country, where different types of agriculture are practiced (Figure 1). Pastoralism occurs mainly around the Nile River running North-South through the center of the country and West of the Nile in the South. Whereas livestock raising can mainly be found in eastern areas, about 60% of the population depends on it for food security and income generation.[7] South Sudan had in 2010-2011 the sixth largest livestock herd and the highest livestock per capita holding in Africa.[8]
5.1. Crop Production Potential: Crop farming occurs in a wider area. Main crops cultivated are sorghum (70% of area sown to cereals in 2019),[9] maize (22% of the cereal area), cassava, groundnuts, sesame, pearl and finger millets, beans, peas, sweet potato and rice. Vegetables, peas and beans are produced near homesteads, mainly for home consumption (most fresh vegetables in markets come from Uganda, Kenya and Sudan).[10] Fruits are also grown throughout the country, mainly for local consumption.
South Sudan’s agricultural potential has been further enhanced by lengthening of rainy seasons over the past decade.[11] An analysis of 2006-2019 historical climatic data finds that areas where agriculture faces high levels of seasonal vulnerability have decreased since 2006. The expected trend is that growing seasons will start earlier and last longer. This shift toward less vulnerable conditions is important for crop production and thus food security. There is also significant land suitable for livestock rearing that could improve the livelihood of pastoralists and agro-pastoralists in the dry lands of the country.
5.2. Fisheries Potential
South Sudan has abundant fishery resources with an estimated total area of 80,000 km2 of fishing ground that is centred along the White Nile River system, which encompasses the largest permanent wetland in Africa (FAO/WB, 2021). South Sudan’s capture fishery may be categorized into subsistence and commercial fishery, with the former being both the largest and most important fishery. Currently, the total annual fish production in South Sudan is estimated at 114,000 tonnes. A large proportion of South Sudan’s population resides in rural areas (80% of total population) and there are up to 35,000 people engaged in fishing activities nationally, with many more involved in periphery fishery activities such as transportation of fish and fisheries products. Fishing is largely viewed as a supplement to agricultural activities for consumption. In communities along banks of water, fish are estimated to account for over 80 percent of daily diets.
5.3. Livestock Potential
According to a Food and Agriculture Administration (FAO) report, “South Sudan’s livestock population is estimated at 12 million cattle, 20 million sheep and 25 million goats according to the National Ministry of Livestock and Fisheries Industry, making it a world leader in terms of animal wealth per capita. The livestock could benefit from investments that will lead to improving animal health and nutrition, commercializing livestock and its products and introducing value addition technologies for livestock products (milk, hides and skin, beef and mutton)”.
6. Strategies for solving the increasing food insecurity situation in South Sudan
To feed this dire food insecure population of South Sudan, it is important to focus on the opportunities that exist and invest in sustainable solutions that will ensure:
6.1. More than doubling cereal production from 900k to 1.8m metric tons/year by increasing agriculture productivity through private-public sectors-led access to inputs (seeds and fertilizer), extension and mechanization. Increased use of technologies that will increase cropland cover from only 3.8% (2.7 m ha) to 14.2 % (9.2 m ha) of total land. This should lead to an increase in per capita cropland from 0.32 to 0.99 ha. Investing in agricultural technologies and community mobilization to ensure an annual increase of more than 20% for roots and tubers, more than 30% for cereals and more than 25% for horticultural crop. Lastly, this will also call for investment in technologies to increase average yield of cereals from less than 0.9 tons per ha to 3 tons per hectare.
6.2. Agriculture sector development policy and planning framework. Strengthening the enabling policy environment and partnerships at community level through a private sector-led initiative. At the national level, primary responsibility for agriculture is vested in the Ministry of Agriculture and Food Security (MAFS) and the Ministry of Animal Resources and Fisheries (MARF). The mandate of the Ministry of Agriculture and Food Security (MAFS) is to transform agriculture from traditional subsistence farming to achieve food security through scientific, market oriented, competitive, and profitable agriculture without compromising the sustainability of natural resources for future generations.
There is a Comprehensive Agricultural Development Master Plan (CAMP), an investment plan developed to align with national development policies and objectives and with the policies and strategies of the Ministry of Agriculture and Food Security (MAFS) and other related ministries of Ministry of Animals Resources and Fisheries (MARF), and Ministry of Electricity, Dams, Irrigation and Water Resources (MEDIWR). CAMP was devised to achieve national and sectoral visions, policy, and development objectives over the period 2015/16-2039/40. CAMP is also the investment plan under the framework of the Comprehensive Africa Agriculture Development Programme (CAADP) of the African Union to achieve continental and regional agricultural development objectives. The government needs support, both financially and capacity-wise, to review and to implement the investment plan in CAMP.
Building the base for strengthened market access by analyzing the market dynamics and providing strategic direction for future country programming with the aim of enhancing market access. The private sector component in the government’s Growth Strategy and Vision 2040 underscores the need for efforts to encourage and nurture local entrepreneurship with a view to broadening growth and employment opportunities. Apart from a few, almost all formal businesses in South Sudan are micro-, small-, and medium-sized enterprises (MSMEs). Small and MSMEs dominate all sectors of the economy.
However, there are limited number of MSMEs operating in the agricultural sector, even though more than 70% of the population in subsistence agriculture is essentially micro- and small-enterprise based. Private sector growth is challenging and difficult in agriculture, mainly because of the business environment and influx of humanitarian relief food, seed and utilities. Thus, there is a need to design programs to sustainably transit from humanitarian to developmental support.
6.4. Agriculture Markets and Trade
Both agricultural input and product markets in South Sudan are underdeveloped. No effective investment can be made in scaling up production, however, without strengthening markets. Nevertheless, there is a shortage of information on the market structure. This curtails the levels of structured interventions. As a result of the underdeveloped marketing arrangements, post-harvest losses at the farm level and within markets are very high, as are food prices. Further, the absence of ICT in rural communities limits market information generation and dissemination. This also restricts market size, outreach and agricultural value chains development. Consequently, the economic benefits of modern telecommunication still elude rural areas in South Sudan.
Furthermore, there are policy and logistical issues that prevent markets operating optimally. Too much influx of unregulated imports from other countries, increased dependence on relief free aid etc. undermine the local market dynamics. Understanding of such forces is key to ensuring the right interventions in commercial agriculture in South Sudan.
6.5. Strategic Partnerships
An enabling agricultural policy and regulatory environment that incentivizes domestic and international agribusiness firms to expand investments in delivery of agricultural technologies in input, and understanding of the output markets in agricultural value chains of staple foods, is a prerequisite for transforming the sector. Hence, efforts by development partners to empower government to initiate a community-led policy change to enact policies and put in place regulations that promote and protect equitable private investment in arable land development, encourage market-driven inputs production and distribution system, adopt a national investment code and actively promote domestic and foreign trade in agricultural commodities; and support the regional inputs and commodity trade.
6.6. Building environmental sustainability and resilience
South Sudan is characterized by multiple crises and threats that include conflict and instability, natural hazards (such as droughts and floods), plant pests and animal disease. Resilience building should become a priority area for the development partners and government. The major hazards faced by communities are: (i) insecurity due to conflict (including ethnic conflict, cattle rustling, competitions over water and grazing lands); (ii) high incidence of pests and disease in plant and animals; (iii) hydro-metrological hazards (late onset and erratic rains; long dry spells; droughts). It is important to work with the government, other development partners and stakeholders including households, communities, and private institutions to adopt a system-wide approach that ensures the coherence and integration of humanitarian, development, and policy intervention to strengthen the resilience of communities and households to food and nutrition insecurity.
6.7. Gender Integration:
“If women had the same access to resources as men, they would increase yields on their farms by up to a third” (UFAD, 2023). In South Sudan, women contribute more than half of the agriculture labor, but their crucial role and contribution to food security is often unrecognized. It will be difficult for the country to increase agricultural production and food security without involving the women who provide farm labor. Gender equality is smart economics, a core development objective for sustainable economic transformation. Achieving gender equality can enhance productivity, improve development outcomes for the next generation, and make institutions more representative. It is against this backdrop that I am proposing to mainstream gender into the design, implementation, monitoring, and evaluation of a delivery model for agriculture interventions in South Sudan with the aim to optimize the participation of all gender groupings, including men, women, and youth. The purpose of a broad-based participation in all aspects of the Agricultural Transformation Agenda in South Sudan is to improve the relevance of program interventions, their impact, sustainability, and management.
7. Conclusion
The main drivers of food insecurity in South Sudan are conflict, climate, and culture as drivers of food insecurity in South Sudan. The delivery of food and livelihood assistance in South Sudan has been disrupted by three years of consecutive flooding, localized conflict, and youth agitation. In addition to conflict, increasing food and fuel prices, displacement, poor harvests, and climate shocks such as floods are the main drivers of food insecurity. High inflation continues to reduce households’ purchasing power, with people unable to meet their basic needs.
With its huge growth potential, agriculture can help the country to achieve a rapid and sustainable economic growth, better than any other sector. Since most of the people live in the rural areas, success in agricultural development will improve the livelihoods of rural people by reducing poverty and enhancing their food security, which are the country’s priority goals.[12] After the CPA, South Sudan had several livelihood and food security development projects implemented by various international NGOs. Some interventions introduced during this period are still operational in several communities. These include continued use of improved cultivation practices; ox-ploughing; community-led maintenance of access roads; community management of storage facilities and mills; and production of seeds by farmer groups. The reason for the successful continuation of these interventions should be identified, and their characteristics studied with a view to scaling them up under future development programmes. Development partners and donors must honestly assess the impact of free food distribution to the same communities year over year, on the people served. Could these funds be invested at least 50/50 on initiating development potential of the agriculture sector?
In addition to the above, there are many other non-agriculture issues that need to be addressed, if agricultural development is to be enhanced. These include expansion and improvement of the road network, streamlining the multiple taxation system and developing more supportive policies and regulatory framework, and spearheading the launching of programmes that induce farmers and the private sector to invest in agriculture. These could comprise provision of rural financing to farmers and their organizations; support to the private sector to service the rural areas, including support to traders, wholesalers and transporters, mechanics, blacksmiths, seed producers and processors; basic food processing entities; and the like. The kind of support needed by these categories of private sector operators would be financial and technical. Since the rural areas have limited financial capacity, some system of financing of activities, e.g., on competitive matching grant or credit, is justified if implementation of development programmes is to be expedited. Together with these interventions, there is a need to supply appropriate farm machineries including draft animals to ease the farm power shortages and introduce technologies that reduce postharvest losses and add value to the row agricultural products. Financing of private sector service providers aimed at leveraging resources and services (marketing, processing, transportations, and input supply) to rural smallholder farmers should also be sought.
[1] World Bank (2020), South Sudan Conflict Economy, chapter “Agricultural and Food Insecurity Dynamics (2006-2020)”. Draft document, July 9, 2020.
[2] United Nations Security Council (2019). Letter dated 9 April 2019 from the Panel of Experts on South Sudan addressed to the President of the Security Council (S/2019/301).
[3] World Bank internal briefing, July 22, 2020.
[4] World Bank internal briefing, July 22, 2020.
[5] FAO (2020). Special Report – 2019 FAO/WFP Crop and Food Security Assessment Mission to the Republic of South Sudan. CFSAMs Special Reports – May 2020. https://doi.org/10.4060/ca9282en
[6] World Bank (2019), South Sudan: linking the agriculture and food sector to the job creation agenda.
[7] Special Report – FAO/WFP Crop and Food Security Assessment Mission to South Sudan, 2019.
[8] Government of South Sudan (2016), Comprehensive Agriculture Master Plan, Juba.
[9] FAO (2020). Special Report – 2019 FAO/WFP Crop and Food Security Assessment Mission to the Republic of South Sudan. CFSAMs Special Reports – May 2020. https://doi.org/10.4060/ca9282en
[10] Government of South Sudan (2016), Comprehensive Agriculture Master Plan, Juba.
[11] World Bank (2020), South Sudan Conflict Economy, chapter on “Agricultural and Food Insecurity Dynamics (2006-2020)”. Draft document, July 9, 2020.
[12] South Sudan Development Initiatives.