Cheikh Mbow | Director General, Centre de Suivi Écologique (CSE) & André Amakobo Diatta

The food crisis fueled by climate change, is set to worsen humanitarian crisis in the Sahel

Abstract

The Sahel is known for its harsh living conditions heralded by severe climate impacts and its limited resources. Food security is highly dependent on unpredictable impacts of climate change resulting in severe shortages of food supplies, increasing the risk of conflict and humanitarian crises that further exacerbates the vulnerability of local populations. Fatalities and human displacements due to food deficit have triggered various forms of programs and global support for humanitarian aid and disaster relief in the Sahel for many decades. With farming practices imported from conventional colonial systems, food production has largely focused on the narrow range of species produced for cash and industrial agriculture, and its value chains have been less favorable to farmers communities’ food demand. This paper demonstrates that there are forgotten opportunities based on local knowledge to grow neglected local species that are climate-tolerant and highly profitable. Reducing humanitarian crises in the Sahel will depend strongly on our ability to improve the food system in place towards climate-adapted production, relying on safer farming methods from the local land-based livelihoods to create and link to food and income while securing the increased demand of food.

Introduction

The Sahel is a hotspot of increasing global temperatures linked to climate change but, above all, the disruptions of hydrological cycles due to severe and more erratic rainfall have exacerbated the already critical state of food scarcity in the region (IPCC, 2023). The rural poor in Sahel suffer the most from these changes and need a range of food security strategies to meet the growing food demand.

Options have been tested to support changes in cropping systems and patterns, shifting from cereal-based systems to cereal-legumes, and diversifying production systems towards higher value-added and more water-efficient options (Thomas, 2008). These changes cannot be achieved without paying greater attention to non-climate factors, some of which are social transformations aimed at enhancing the value of certain practices over the status quo.

The Sahel is a unique geographical region where the prevalence of malnutrition and hunger is the most known worldwide. Paradoxically, the Sahel is home to a number of neglected species that can contribute to the nutrition of populations (Padulosi et al., 2013). The deterioration of local food systems is amplifying humanitarian crises. Food security and human development, under the influence of climate change and global trade, are key to mitigating armed conflict. There is an urgent need to integrate the diversity of non-accounted food sources into local food systems.

There is a growing interest in neglected plants and practices in the Sahel, as numerous studies are established to investigate the importance of social transformation based on new sources of quality food to achieve nutrition security in vulnerable communities and identify the main underlying reasons for the decline of food per capita in the Sahel. Several studies have shown that the prevalence of malnutrition is significantly higher in the region and where there is a severe deterioration of local food systems (Capone et al., 2014).

There is an urgent need in the Sahel to develop and use guidelines for new approaches to improve the food deficit, with the aim of helping countries make the best use of biodiversity for food and agriculture in their nutrition programs. Studies have been carried out to highlight the need for evidence, specifically to promote knowledge, conservation, development and use of plant varieties and cultivars used as food, as well as wild, neglected and underutilized species contributing to health and nutrition (FAO, 2016). Focusing on climate conditions is necessary, but not enough, to establish a new image of the Sahel.

Innovative approaches for improved food security will encompass and manage the diverse interactions between food, water, energy, and land, all associated with climate change and variability, amplified by trade and population pressure under aridity conditions.

Identification of the challenges for solutions

The Sahel is undergoing climate change more rapidly than other regions and is already experiencing vulnerabilities which further exacerbate the impacts – variable production (Figure 1) more easily disrupted by conflict, sparser populations further from centers of governance, poorer infrastructure, and the export of much capital. However, African drylands also possess many remarkable resources and opportunities that are poorly recognized or mobilized, and, when undisrupted by external influences, the institutions and knowledge of local community provide both traditional and innovative options for future livelihoods. Whilst the Sahel faces many of the same challenges as other parts of Africa, it has been characterized by recurrent humanitarian crises since the mega-drought that severely affected the region and was exacerbated by armed conflicts.

These food crises in the Sahel started occurring since the long series of droughts from the 1970s which over time painted a grim image of an endemic food deficit in the region. Analysis of annual rainfall negative anomalies (deficit) shows that the region has not recovered its rainfall patterns before the first drought hit of 1968-1972 (figure 2).

Additionally, in the Sahel, the population lacks the minimum asset needed to initiate the most basic responses towards resilience. Some of the improvements seen despite the armed conflicts are canceled out by continuous crises, some due to climate change, others to political and economic challenges. We have witnessed mass migration in many African landscapes, but particularly in semi-arid regions, due to the lack of opportunities. In Africa, everything – from food diversity to natural assets – can be linked to sustainable food systems, job creation and improved population health. It’s impossible to retain people, particularly young people and women, if the only message they get from our decision-makers is despair, which inhibits possible processes to lift communities out of poverty.

The global food trade has taken a new turn since the Ukraine War. Almost all countries in Africa are concerned about world market disruption and food flow change due to the abrupt decline in the grain supply and the input assets for wheat production. This Ukraine crisis is a wake-up call for additional efforts towards food sovereignty, as stated during the head of states appeal at the Dakar Food Summit in January 2023 (https://www.afdb.org/en/dakar-2-summit-feed-africa-food-sovereignty-and-resilience) for the development of the adequate partnerships and private sector mobilization to unlock Africa’s food production potential. Similarly, efforts to promote food security in Africa have been an important policy objective of AUC (Agenda 2063, https://au.int/agenda2063/goals) with several goals linked to quality food through improved agriculture, e.g., modern agriculture (5), healthy and well-nourished citizens (3), high standard of living (1).

Evidence of food and humanitarian crises in the Sahel

All climate change projections for the next decades imply extremes events with massive spatial dislocations of agricultural production potential. Changes in rainfall patterns are most significant in the Sahel. Although rainfall trends in the Sahel vary from a strongly negative to a moderately positive trend, spatial and temporal variability increase the likelihood of drought spells during the rainy season and extreme rainfall events. These changes will require additional efforts on agricultural adaptation, which will obviously include substantial changes in land use.

Given the close relationship between agriculture productivity and humanitarian crises in the Sahel (Figure 2) (Graves et al., 2019), particular attention should be given to rainfall changes as precursors of social-economic crises. This may happen as a result of the individual impacts of farmers, who may choose to migrate temporally (rural migration to urban centers) or move permanently to other locations, mostly within their own countries (Figure 3). It also takes the form of collective actions, with government-backed programs such as the Great Green Wall, or non-state support (Feed the Future, FEWSNET, WFP, etc.).

In the Sahel, there is a strong historical evidence of the severity of crop production shortfalls (Mbow et al., 2008), but it is not evident that climate change is the only cause. For instance, the drought of the seventies and early eighties did not appear to have solely caused a major abandonment of agricultural land. Since the mid-eighties rainfall has recovered slightly (Mbow et al., 2008), yet rainfall variability seems to have increased. Many other factors influencing large-scale land use have also changed: the national population continues to grow at over 3% per year, rural exodus is increasing, and the economics of crop production and animal husbandry has been impacted by fluctuating input and product prices. Furthermore, the institutional framework is also changing: land tenure systems for croplands and rangelands are undergoing change, both formally/legally and informally, and decentralization of natural resource management is underway.

Expected prices of agricultural inputs, as well as actual prices, are partly externally determined, controlled by world market prices and political decisions on subsidies, as well as influenced by local factors, such as transport costs, etc. Examples of economically-induced changes in land use include the importance, for the extent of groundnut production, of fluctuating world market prices and the removal of subsidies on mineral fertilizers, which took place in the 1980s (Mbow et al., 2008); while economic incentives to increase millet and groundnut production were very limited. Imported foods, notably rice, replaced millet as a staple food in the urban population’s diet. However, the urban demand for vegetables, meat and milk has increased and prices have improved over the last decades.

Various options to bring back a food secure continent (countering imported options)

The Sahel is characterized by its diversity, both in terms of ecosystems, but also in terms of practices and cultures. This diversity is at the heart of the lives and livelihoods of Africa’s population, who depend on natural products for most of their needs. The relationship between the survival of African communities and the assets of nature is stronger here than anywhere else in the world, due to poverty (in Africa). Furthermore, the so-called ‘arid’ and ‘semi-arid’ zones of the Sahel – where famine is most often reported and where most of the major challenges of land degradation arise – are where most agricultural landscapes are found. Therefore, if we really want a better Sahel in terms of resilience, poverty alleviation and ability to respond to climate change, the key lever is promoting the Sahel’s potential (Mbow et al., 2021), which is enormous.

These include tailored empowerment for locally-led solutions within national plans that take remoteness into account; support for aggregating neglected natural resources in African urban markets; strengthening capital inflows (such as global mechanisms for funding adaptation, including loss and damage, e.g., Santiago Network) in these regions to re-invest in physical, social, human and environmental infrastructure and services. This impact-driven approach will be part of co-created, specific visions that will serve as beacons for improving livelihoods, reducing conflict and reframing emigration in the face of climate and other changes.

To promote sustainable agricultural methods and design anti-erosion resource management programs, it is essential to identify the most appropriate soil and water conservation technologies. Proven innovation and tested solutions exist in drylands and can be scaled up.

Climate-smart agriculture (CSA) is a practice with great transformative potential in the Sahel more than anywhere else in Africa, significantly improving lives and livelihoods (Sinclair et al., 2019). Examples of CSA include cover cropping, crop rotation, soil nutrients management, nitrogen fixation, mulching and use of crop residues, agroforestry, sustainable land management, carbon amendment and reduced tillage (Lipper et al., 2014).

Ecosystem functions, including biodiversity and water services, are essential for increasing resource efficiency and productivity, and ensuring resilience. Ecosystem-based adaptation (EBA) plays an important role in the development of an agricultural sector that is linked to viable supply and demand value chains, well integrated into the broader landscape, climate-resilient and environmentally and socially sustainable (Muthee et al., 2017).

A call for integrated approaches

The colonial system almost destroyed the intrinsic value of integrated land management, which was the secular approach across the continent (Figure 4). The monocropping approaches inherited from western farming systems are the opposite of the way Africans are used to farming. It’s this multifunctionality (Minang et al., 2014) that we are returning to, and it’s really where we should be heading in the future. A variety of integrated land-based livelihood activities, which have always existed in African drylands, therefore need to be significantly re-invented/re-valued, because of their potential to significantly improve food and water security, even in the face of climate change, given appropriate investments and stability. In particular, the landscape approach, which is the traditional default approach to land management in Africa, needs to be adopted as part of various land-based policies. It has been revived because of evidence that has helped people understand that the best way to find the balance between food, nature and people is to develop a holistic landscape approach.

In addition, (agro) biodiversity can contribute immensely towards achieving various adaption needs such as food products, fuel wood, soil fertility and various ecosystem functions. Most of Africa’s drylands are facing major environmental problems such as biodiversity loss, deforestation, habitat degradation and increased risks of climate change. Efforts to conserve biodiversity while maintaining agricultural and pastoral production are the main challenge for rural poor. To maintain ecosystem health and diversity, most conservation efforts have focused on preserving the desired ecological traits in the face of growing demand for land for various purposes.

Four cross-cutting issues need to be addressed in the Sahel to reduce inequity and eccentricity of vulnerable communities, while unlocking diverse green job potentials for women and youth (Figure 5). Significant efforts are necessary to help the poor and vulnerable use transformative innovations to access relevant agricultural inputs, including quality seeds, and develop practices to adapt to climate risks and benefit from legal instruments to protect people through proper governance structures and equitable role for the different value chain actors.

Actions towards improved lives and livelihood

Resolute efforts for scaling up adaptation in resource-poor conditions and food insecure communities are needed and require that various forms of agriculture be operated around small-holder farmers (Figure 6), where most of the population is engaged in a variety of livelihoods, including renewable energy, water resource management, and coping mechanisms related to income diversification. Any locally-owned practices and ecosystems can be aggregated/packaged for subsequent scaling up mechanisms. This can be achieved through significant services from science-based outcomes that ensures sustainable food production, but also health and education for vulnerable communities, including solid peer-to-peer learning in similar environments in the drylands. Some of Sahel’s dwellers, prepared for mass migration, are now returning to the land, and many others are finding new livelihoods in the nearby towns to produce food for the urban market (urban agriculture); reducing the net emigration has enabled a more regular ebb and flow of people moving between the drylands and Africa’s large cities.

Diversification of food sources is important to improve nutrition in the Sahel, where we have dozens of plants that produce quality food, quality cereals, and quality grains. Therefore, the diversification we need in any landscape should be easy in Africa. We need to promote this diversity to improve both quality and quantity, food for a good diet and for nutrition. This is, indeed, a triple victory: a win for food, a win for health, and a win for the environment.

Local development through income generation, food loss reduction, and the promotion of local value chains for millet, sorghum, and groundnuts deserves full attention to stabilize and offer a decent future for its populations. However, realizing this potential requires improved entrepreneurship in agricultural production, starting with a secure and sustainable supply of quality seeds. The creation of new opportunities in crop production must be underpinned by the transformation of existing business models through a greater role of the private sector, mainly SMEs, to enhance income diversification for various stakeholders along the value chain. For agricultural networks in which small farms predominate, the main development potential lies in simultaneously addressing the different components of the farming systems by improving seed quality, managing soil health and increasing resilience to climate risks.

Addressing the impediments for a brighter future

  1. Risks associated with increasing market demand for food products, fueled by rapid urbanization and the growth of the region’s middle class (solution: improve yields and meet projected demand) where connectivity is very weak;
  2. Risks related to the weakness or absence of local corporate services to support efficient supply chains for high-value natural resources;
  3. Risks linked to available credit to trigger the private sector to develop the supply chain of quality seeds and to source from farmers in order to create green jobs through SMEs that retain young people in their countries rather than attempting risky migration outside Africa;
  4. Risk related to institutional arrangements for the application of technologies that improve production and reduce food losses.

Conclusion

Human security in the Sahel is intrinsically linked to other security issues such as food security. The region needs to work on a new framework that allows the many opportunities to be pursued together and over longer time periods to counter the effects of severe climate change. Returning to forgotten practices and food sources will help maintain momentum towards ambitious food, land, and climate security goals. Food security could serve as a vector of resilience if current practices are extended to unused opportunities that can help provide high quality products, particularly for vulnerable communities. This paper shows the importance of local responses that are cost-effective and capacity-effective, that can generate benefits from neglected local species.

Conflict as an obstacle to food security in the Sahel deserves special mention. Current conflicts in the Sahel are associated with non-climate factors such as poor land management or limited rural infrastructure and markets, which exacerbate the problem. Many Sahelian countries despair of making progress, as most positive advances are cancelled out by recurring conflicts. Conflict can be fueled by climate change, land competition, and resources scarcity such as water. Conflicts in the Sahel are fundamentally due to the synergic effect of various variables, including climate change and the current political crisis. There is no silver bullet to reduce humanitarian crises in the Sahel but improving food security is a good option to start building the minimum asset endowment for human dignity.

Promoting local responses can be useful if and when value chains are conducive to meeting local food supply needs. This requires a politically stimulating approach that captures the full resource value of commodities produced in the Sahel and helps develop appropriate investment for food production.

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